The Reply Rate Trap: What 9 Industries Really Teach You About Finding a Deal

If you’re trying to buy a small business, you’ve probably had the moment where you pause and think, “Okay…but which industries are actually best?” And if you’ve spent any time in the ETA world, you’ve been hit with every “best boring businesses to buy” list under the sun. Everybody has a take. Everybody has an industry they swear is a goldmine.

But something hits different once you actually start doing outreach.

Because here’s the truth no one really says out loud: it doesn’t matter how ‘great’ an industry is if you can’t get a single owner to talk to you.

A business can have phenomenal margins. Recurring revenue. Insane retention. All the things the gurus obsess over. But if the owner isn’t interested or isn’t reachable, it doesn’t matter.

So we looked at actual outreach results across nine industries, and the thing that mattered most wasn’t the business model. It wasn’t the revenue mix. It wasn’t even the size of the companies.

It was owner motivation and owner behavior.

And once you look at the data through that lens, everything gets a lot clearer.

Reply Rate Is Only One Data Point

Searchers LOVE talking about reply rates. “How many responses did you get?” “What’s your open rate?” “My reply rate is 11%!”

Cool. But here’s what our data made painfully obvious:

A high reply rate just tells you who’s talkative - not who wants to sell.

Some owners reply because they’re curious. Some reply because they like talking shop. Some reply because they’ve been pitched 100x and want to size you up. Some reply just to politely decline.

None of that gets you closer to a deal. The two numbers that matter more are:

1. Interest Rate: Of the people who reply, how many genuinely say, “Yeah, I’d talk about a transition”?

2. Meeting Conversion: Of those interested owners, how many actually get on a call?

If those two numbers are strong, the industry is viable - even if you get 3 replies a month. If those two numbers are weak, the industry is a time sink - even if your inbox is overflowing.

Two Clear Industry Personalities Emerged

When we looked across the nine industries, everything fell into two categories. 

1. The Silent Goldmines

These industries hardly reply at all. But when someone does reply, they mean it.

• Fleet Management

• Septic

• Plumbing

• Waste

Fleet Management had a healthy reply rate of 6% but a massive 75% of those replies were actually open to talking about a sale. The same thing showed up in Septic & Plumbing: only 3% reply rate, but an interest rate around 70%.

Why? Because the people in these industries are usually:

• older

• physically burned out

• overwhelmed by labor issues

• not living in their inbox

• thinking about succession

When they reply, they’re not “curious.” They’re actually ready to talk.

These industries are incredibly efficient. 2. The Engaged Vetting Industries

Then you have the opposite: industries where owners reply more frequently…but they’re not selling.

• Cybersecurity

• Software

• Water Management
  

Cybersecurity owners? They’ll reply. But they’re inherently skeptical and only 11% of those replies were actually interested, and even fewer took meetings. They’re usually younger, scaling, and very aware of what their company might be worth someday.

Water Management had the highest reply rate of all - 11% - but only 23% of those replies wanted to talk more.

These industries feel productive because your inbox is moving. But the truth is, most of the replies go nowhere.

Why This Doesn't Show Up In Guru Playbooks

Most ETA content focuses on business quality: Margins. Recurring revenue. SDE multiples. “High trust businesses.” “Boring is beautiful.” Whatever the headline of the week is.

All of that is fine -  if you can actually access the owner.

A “great business” that you can’t get a meeting with is not a great search lane. Meanwhile, a less glamorous business with reachable, tired owners might be your fastest path to a signed LOI.

Industry selection isn’t just about business economics. It’s about owner accessibility and owner mindset.

And that’s the part nobody talks about.

Motivation Isn't Static

Another thing our data made clear is that owner motivation changes constantly.

It shifts with:

• labor shortages

• regulation

• seasonality

• industry consolidation

• burnout cycles

• interest rates

• equipment costs
  

The “best” industry last year might be awful right now. The “boring” one today might be full of aging owners ready to retire.

Search isn’t a set-it-and-forget-it strategy. It’s a moving target.

So What Do You Actually Do With This?

Here’s the straightforward, practical version you’d tell a friend:

• Don’t pick an industry because someone on X said it prints money.

• Don’t panic when an industry is quiet.

• Don’t chase industries that reply fast but never take meetings.

• Match your channels to the owner.
  

Lean toward industries where you can build trust naturally.